Climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing the global agriculture industry and rural socio-economic systems. Despite the typically pessimistic outlook surrounding this hot-button issue, climate change has the potential to both positively and negatively affect the location, timing and productivity of crop, livestock and fishery systems at local, national and global scales, according to a report by the National Climate Assessment (the “Assessment”). This Assessment was produced by more than 300 climate change experts and a 60-person Federal Advisory Committee. Carefully reviewed by the National Academy of Sciences, objectivity and neutrality were top priorities in its creation.
In recent years, agriculture disruptions directly linked to climate change have increased dramatically, according to FiveThirtyEight, a popular blog created by Nate Silver that uses statistical analysis—hard numbers—to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, sports, science and more.
For regions located in climate change’s crosshairs, there will likely be declines in crop and livestock production as a result of increased stress due to weeds, diseases, insect pests and other climate change induced stress.
In this two part blog series, we will start by analyzing the potential increasing risks posed by climate change to the agriculture industry as a whole, with a focus on the impacts related to crop and livestock production. In part two, we will look into how the industry is adapting to these risks and where the centers of innovation lie. Additionally, we will analyze how climate change may impact future food security, soil quality, weeds, pests and diseases, using National Climate Assessment data as our objective guide.
Agriculture: An Industry at Risk?
According to the Assessment, climate change is among the most critical issues facing humanity right now and will have a significant impact on the global food supply, creating new food security challenges. While it was once seen as an issue reserved for future generations, humans are already seeing the impact all around them. According to the Assessment, climate change will alter the stability of food supplies and create new food security challenges for the United States as the world seeks to feed nine billion people by 2050.
“Production of all commodities will be vulnerable to direct impacts (from changes in crop and livestock development and yield due to changing climate conditions and extreme weather events) and indirect impacts (through increasing pressures from pests and pathogens that will benefit from a changing climate),” the Assessment notes. This means everything from the quantity of produce available for export/import as well as prices will be affected.
Climate Change and Agricultural Production
The Assessment points out a wide range of environmental impacts that occur as a result of climate change, and it should be noted that not all of them are negative (especially in the short term).
Here are some of the overarching impacts we may see in the coming years:
Declines and Increases in Crop Production
Climate change may permanently alter weather patterns, temperatures and rainfall which could lead to an overall decrease in global agriculture production. According to a climate report published by the University of North Carolina, in areas where crops are being grown in their warmest productive temperature ranges already, temperature increases due to climate change or increased disease could reduce yields. However, the report also notes that promising research on new crop varieties and technological advances could improve yields in spite of reductions due to temperature increases.
The report also lays out the following potentially positive impact of climate change on agriculture production:
Cooler areas of the country might be more habitable for some of the main food crops grown in the US – thus, expanding the areas in which certain crops could be grown or moving their ranges north. For example, less frequent freezes could allow citrus to move north from its current range in Florida to other areas of the southeast.
New Challenges Facing Livestock Production
While its likely crops will be affected by climate change, perhaps even more susceptible to changes in climate trends are livestock. Increased air temperatures may cause stress on livestock resulting in a decline in reproduction during stifling heat. Livestock appetites also decrease in high temperatures, which lengthens the time that it takes for livestock to reach a target weight. When animals are heat stressed, they often only eat about half of normal quantities. Incidences of sickness may also increase along with increased fighting among animals in confinement. Another concern is disease, as insect parasites may become more prolific. Livestock may not be able to fight strong new diseases without the help of costly medicines. The Assessment did not contain any potentially significant positive impacts when it comes to climate
Preparing the Agriculture Industry for Climate Change
Climate change isn’t a challenge reserved for the distant future, it’s already happening all around us and the agriculture industry will need to be proactive and prepare in order to reduce its negative impacts. To continue to have the ability to feed the world, the Assessment argues “it’s critical that we see what is actually happening and understand what it means for our lives, our livelihoods and our future.”
Adequate preparation, fueled by research and technological change, will allow for a more rapid and efficient response to change as it happens. According to the Assessment, such efforts are already taking place at the federal, regional, state and local levels. Ag startups and think tanks are working to build adaptive capacity and resilience to combat the impending impacts of climate change, which we briefly touched on in this article. In our next blog, we’ll take a look at how climate change can impact food security, weeds, pests and soil. However, the primary focus will be on how the industry is adapting and the Ag startups that are taking advantage of this unprecedented opportunity to innovate.